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NBME Self-Assessment Tests and USMLE Review – Part II

Today, we will talk more about the NBME self-assessment tests. We previously discussed what the NBME self-assessment tests are and how they impact your USMLE review. You can read the posts here. Now we will cover three important topics. When to use the NBME self-assessment tests, how to use the NBME self-assessment tests and how wise it is to use the USMLE World self-assessment tests instead.

We now know that the NBME self-assessment tests are accurate in predicting actual USMLE performance. And we also know that the main reason for this accuracy is the correlation study done by NBME between the two tests using AMGs performance in both tests rather than to any real similarity between the 2 tests. This correlation has also been borne out by most test takers who narrated their experience in forums. It can be used to gauge whether you will pass the examination and even if you have a good chance of achieving the score you are aiming for.

So when is the best time to take the NBME? The best time is when you think that you are ready for the USMLE. When all parameters indicate that you are probably ready for the examination, you take the NBME to confirm that you are ready for the examination. In other words, use the NBME as a diagnostic or confirmatory test, instead of a screening test. You can use your performance in USMLE World or Kaplan Q Bank as a screening test.

The practice of many to take the NBME to identify weak points and measure progress in review is not very practical. First, there are only 6 NBME tests (for Step 1) and second, you can take it only once. Taking it more than once invalidates the correlation and therefore its accuracy in predicting actual USMLE performance. Therefore, what do you do if you are still not ready after taking all six tests? You just used up your most valuable tool for predicting your actual performance in the USMLE.

Personally, I used the NBME exam to confirm my readiness to achieve my targeted score of 99. In preparing for Step 1, when my Kaplan scores were hitting 84 and above, I felt I was ready for the test. I took NBME form 1 only and 740 confirmed my readiness for the exam since I was aiming for a 99. 600 was enough for a 99, but I would have postponed if I got less than 660. Why? Since I decided I want only a 99, I was giving myself a 10 point leeway (600=240 and 660=250) to make sure I make it to a 99 no ifs, ands, or buts. ;-) The same thing holds true for Step 2 CK, I took the exam when my one and only NBME test scored 700, way above what I needed for a 99.

Another common question is whether to take the examination timed or self-paced. Since you are trying to test your actual readiness for the examination, it is best to simulate actual exam conditions. In my case, I took self-paced but finished everything in the 1 hour allotted for it. I may look over the questions after 1 hour, but I will not change them so as not to alter the score predictability too much. Make sure everyone in the house knows not to disturb you while doing this. Although you can pause the exam, it is not recommended. Also I do not recommend you do it in a public library. There was one person who took the USMLE despite getting a low score in NBME. He attributed it to the fact that he took it in a noisy public library and “upward adjusted” his predicted score. He failed. So, take it properly and trust the score. One warning, though, correlation is not 100% therefore always give yourself some leeway in case things do not go too well. Never, ever go for the examination if you scored 400 or less. Your chances of failing is too high and even if you passed 75 and 76 are with you for life.

Recently, USMLE World started offering their own assessment tests for US$ 30 each, US$ 15 cheaper than NBME’s assessment tests. The question foremost in everyone’s mind is, can I switch to UW assessments tests instead of NBME’s. How wise is a decision like that?

The reason for using assessment tests is to make sure you are ready for the USMLE and to lessen the risk of getting an adverse score. NBME has proven throughout the years, after thousands of test takers, that it is a reliable predictor of your actual score in the USMLE. It is also backed up by correlation studies that have been published in journals. Now, although USMLE World’s assessment test may also be a reliable predictor of your actual USMLE performance, all we have is their word for it. No study has been cited or provided to independently verify such claim. And not enough empirical evidence from test taker’s experience forums allow us to make any judgment on its accuracy at all. Surveying forum after forum reveals variable experience with the tests as of now.

My take is that since you only have one shot at the USMLE, it is better to go with what is proven and tested rather than take a risk. Although, you can retake the USMLE if you fail, that failure is recorded and counted against you. If you pass, the score is with you the rest of your professional life. If you chose to, maybe you can use the UW assessment tests as a screening tool. Just be sure to use the NBME assessment test, whatever form to confirm your readiness before actually sitting for the USMLE.

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173 comments to NBME Self-Assessment Tests and USMLE Review – Part II

  • haitham

    actually u r doing a great job…a lot of valuable information in this blog

    wish u the best

  • also would like to ask:

    which nbme to take as there r 6 nbmes?

    r they all the same dificulty as i hear from some usmlers they vary in difficulty

    so if so which form is the best correlated to usmle scores?

  • Fady

    Thank you for your incredible effort in this website.
    I’d like to know; if my score is below 400, and I postponed the exam for more preparation, can I re-take NBME again? and which form?
    And in general, which form is the most accurate in prediction?

  • Each NBME form should only be taken once as retaking them can inflate your score and lower predictability. Based on the first 4 forms, Form 1 has highest correlation. No information on Form 5 or 6 yet. But even so Form 1 has only 0.89 correlation and therefore not 100% guarantee. Some would use 2 forms and if they agree with each other than possibility that predictability is high. Since each form should only be taken once to maximize predictability, it is poor practice to use up all forms in your review. Since if you’ve done all 6 forms and the last form predicts below 400, you’ve just run out of forms to accurately assess your readiness for the examination. Now, if you’ve actually used up all 6 forms, suggest you use UW assessment, since preliminary reports state it is fairly accurate although not yet proven as NBME has been. This time try to conserve it and use it only if all other parameters like UW Qbank or Kaplan Q Bank indicates you are scoring high.

  • Jay

    Thanks so much for the inciteful info. I’ve been searching out info on all the blogs about the Uworld assessments. I am taking the the test on Tuesday, about a week ago I took the first Uworld assessment and got a score of 224. Two days later I took the second Uworld assessment and got the same exact score. Yesterday I took NBME 3 (because I heard this was the most accurate predictor) and received a 209. I do not know which one I should assess myself with. Should I just go by what NBME says? Thanks so much…

  • Hi Jay,

    The assessment tests usually have good internal correlation with each other. So the close correlation between tow UW forms is expected, just as close correlation between 2 NBME forms is expected. There is no data on correlation between UW results vs. NBME results although that would be interesting. Personally, I would still go with NBME since it has been tested against the USMLE more times the UW. Again it does not mean UW is less reliable, just less proof of reliability and that is not the same thing. But for now, at least it appears you have a very good chance of passing this exam.

    Good luck on your exam. Remember to rest well the night before and don’t eat too much on the day of the exam (more carbo than protein) so you don’t get sleepy. After lunch is worst, and the more full you are, the sleepier you get. (increase visceral blood flow for digestion and metabolic alkalosis as HCl stays longer in GI for digestion. metabolic alkalosis = hypoventilate = less O2 to brain)

  • dr patel

    Hi, i failed twice in usmle, and now feel confuse what to do.
    Can u pl tell me my attempt will affect to get residency, if i get good score.
    Pl be helpful.
    Thanks

  • dr patel

    Hi,
    Can u pl say about form 5 and 6?

  • hi dr patel,

    Failing the USMLE twice will negatively impact your chances for a residency. However, as in everything there are ways to remedy them. One is to get a good score once you pass it. The higher the better, but nothing less than 90. Even then you need to work harder than other people though to get a residency. The reason is as always supply and demand. Too many applicants and too few positions which makes programs especially choosy.

    As to commenting about form 5 and 6, if you read my post on Donating to Askdoc’s USMLE Blog, you know why I can’t really comment on form 5 and 6.

  • dr patel

    Hello, doc.
    Thanks you very much. Can u pl tell me how can i assess my self & be sure i am ready for exam? usmlerx or usmle world , which one is worth ?
    I appreciate ur help.
    Dr patel

  • Asiya

    I am so thankful to you askdoc that i can only pray God blesses you forever,Your input for USMLE has made a great difference to alot….I myself wasnt so motivated and very stressed out as to how to start and where to start and what if i fail and all those i asked just gave answers which i already new….study kaplan books n do this n do dat but i wasnt sure where i stand and i was getting scared of myself that i know nothing and becoming a hipocrit….but after reading your post i am back to my senses and i will start from today evalute myself and see how to start and its basically from scratch the learning phase is what i need to get the basic concept then i can move ahead or else i will never reach my goal…..is there anyway i can reach you by means of mail or contact incase i get stuck n need advise???Please let em know.God be with you always.Thankyou.

  • Hi Asiya,

    You can reach me through personal messaging system in my forum at http://forums.askdoc-usmle.com. My callsign is of course askdoc

    If you have to start from scratch you need to start with textbooks and not reviewers and you should cover the subjects in the order your medical school did it which is Anatomy and Physiology first, then Biochemistry, then Microbio/Immuno and Pharmacology, then lastaly Pathology. Behavioral Sciences, you can just use a reviewer. After you finish your learning phase, you can use the review methodology I outlined in my forum, “Askdoc’s Method of USMLE Review for Step 1″

    Good luck in your prep. Feel free to contact me for help if you need them.

    Mike aka “askdoc”

  • dr patel

    Hi, can u pl tell me, if i registered for usmle in india, can i able to trasfer my testing region from india to usa?
    Thanks

  • saba

    hi, iam saba .i got a score of 520 in nbme self assessement form 2 test .iam planning to write step by 25th jan 2009 . please tell me should i write the exam or postpond it till i get a good score

  • Hi saba,

    Depends on the score you are aiming for. 520 is equal to around 214 or thereabouts which is high 80′s. If you are aiming for passing the exam or getting 80′s then the score is good enough. If you are fresh grad and not aiming for surgery or other tough specialty, you don’t need really that high a score. However, if you are old grad or going for competitive programs, the higher your score the better your chances.

  • saba

    hai, please help me . as i have already told u that i got a score of 520(224) in nbme self asse form 2. after 2 days i wrote usmle self asse form 1 & 2 and i got a score of 510&520 resp. iam planning to give step in jan last week . iam very afraid of the exam . please tell me ?
    is actual step 1 more like nbme or u world

  • To saba,

    The actual step 1 questions are more like Kaplan and U world q Bank, rather than NBME. However, that is immaterial since if you have studied well and prepped properly, you would do well in the USMLE. The NBME assessment tests have proven to be fairly reliable in predicting your score. It seems recent data (from forums) also indicates that the UW assessment tests is also fairly reliable in predicting your score.

    DO NOT BE AFRAID of the exam. If you prepped right and both NBME and UW assessment tests predict a good score (like in your case) you should do well. But relax and don’t get too uptight. Some people failed not because they were not prepared for the exam but because they were too nervous and suffered anxiety attacks. These can cause you to score lower, stay calm, Remember you are a doctor. Used to taking pressure.

    I was so uptight when I took my Step 1 that my heart was pounding and my hands was shaking. I took a break, washed my face, took a beta-blocker to decrease my heart rate. Went back finished the exam and got my 99/256. Now relax, breathe deeply. concentrate the last week doing flashcards or rapid review of First Aid. Don’t cover new topics as that would just stress you out. Look through pathology images in First aid or in my High Yield Fast Facts course in http://prep.askdoc-usmle.com.

    2 to 3 days before the exam, do not study, just take a break, sleep well. On day of exam. Wake up early, do not take too much fluids( a cup of coffee or tea would do) since you want to minimize going to the bathroom. Make sure you eat some breakfast. preferably high energy and high carbohydrate. Avoid meats (ham, eggs, etc.) Make it light so you don’t feel sleepy. Light lunch only, again high energy, high carbohydrate with little meat so as not to make you feel sleepy. After you finish, go out celebrate with your family. Take the next 3 weeks off, then wait for the result.

    Good luck on your exam

    Askdoc

  • haitham

    Hi askdoc…hope you r fine……well i jsut got 245/630 on uwsa the first form……some people tell it is 99 ..others say uwsa overinflate the score…….and i dont want to get a score less than 99…..my exam is on 10 march and am really scared……..still have form 2 to do…..cant do nbme because lack of funds and also i did most of their questions on the forums.

    really need to hear your opinion.

    cheers).

  • Dr. M

    Hi. I am relatively new to your blog, but I already like it. It has already helped me in many ways. I specially liked this post about the NBME.
    I am about to take the Step 1 examination and want to know which of all the NBME forms do you recommend over all. I ask this question because I have relative little time to spare before taking the test, and want a really good assesment of my studying so far.

    Thank you for your time.
    Dr. M

  • Hi haitham,

    Although, 630 does correspond to a 99, there are differences when done on assessment tests vs. real exam. For one the actual exam is longer (fatigue is a bigger factor). The pressure is stronger because its now the “real” thing. Therefore there is a strong tendency to score lower on the actual exam instead of the assessment test. In my case, My NBME assessment was 740 which would merit a 99/265 or thereabouts, but my actual score was 99 / 256 a 9 point loss. When I assessed the various correlation of the NBME, I noted that a variation of 10 points (2SD) from predicted score was the norm for NBME assessment. (I have not had the chance to see if current spread still holds since this was done in 2006 when I took my exam). Therefore I made a cutoff of 660 = to 250 or 10 points from 240 which was the minimum 3 digit score to get a 99. When I hit 740, I decided to proceed with my examination. I do not know the exact predictability and spread for the UW assessment forms, but I think it would be close to NBME although not exact. And you are right, there has been some complaints of overinflation with UW compared to NBME.

    The actual score you will get will probably depend on how much effect fatigue and pressure will have on your final score and the amount of additional points you can get by having one more month to review. My suggestion is that you go through high yield stuff on February concentrating on 3 subjects, Pathology, Micro-Immuno (especially Immuno) and Pharma (especially prototype drugs, most common side effects, therapy of choice) Go through rapid review section of First aid or the High Yield Fast Facts Review course in my prep site http://prep.askdoc-usmle.com. If you have notes for q Banks, review them thoroughly. If you still have qBank enrollments, do speed drills. That is answer questions as fast as you can without reviewing your answers. This is to drill you to read fast and recall fast rather to attain the highest score possible. Take the next form around 10 to 14 days before your actual exam. If you get a score above 660 or so, I think your chances for a 99 is very high (If this was NBME, I would say it is a sure 99).

    Come back to me after and I’ll give you some tips on how to prepare for the day of the examination, ie, pacing, diet, medications to bring, etc.

    Good luck on your prep

    Askdoc

    PS. relax, Do your best, if you are meant to get a 99 you will. And your chances for doing that is very high.

  • Hi Dr. M,

    Actually any of the first 4 would do. The best is to do two forms and if both correlate to more or less same score, then your chances of getting that score would do. I have less data on the other forms so will not venture to give judgment on them. But based on experience of my students and other users, the first 4 forms are very consistent with each other give or take a few points.

    Askdoc.

  • Ahmed

    Hi there !
    I intend to enter the part 1 exam somewhere in beginning of March. I have been studying for almost 6 months now but I did not make that much of an effort ( study times short and far between ) anyway last night I could not sleep and I didnt feel like studying so I decided to try the NBME .
    I took NBME basic sciences 5 since it said NEW on it . Anyway , it took me less than 2 hours to finish it (I dont like to dwell a lot on answer , you either got it or you dont !!) and my end result was 560 : ( that was disappointing because although I still need to go through the curriculum for one final review (the last time I read naything in Anatomy or Embryology for example is about 5 months ago) , still I did not get an idea of where my performance was bad .
    My performance on USMLE Qbank varied . If I waited to take it AFTER I had studied AND revised a subject I get over 80% while other times I just take timed tests in a particular subject before having completed studying it , so my overall has fallen to about 67% (90% completed now) , I never used tutorial mode .
    So tell me , what do you think my chances are at getting a high score ? Should I take NBME 1 so I can get a better idea ?I was going to take test on first of March , should I “beware the ides of March” ? : D thank you

  • Hi Ahmed,

    560 is already mid to high 90′s. Of course if you are aiming for a 99, that is not high enough. If you finished all 4 blocks in 2 hours then the score will probably hold in the actual examination. If you are happy about getting 90′s then one last revision is all you need before taking the examination. You can take form 1 about 7 days before your scheduled exam as a final test of your readiness. If you are aiming for a 99, 2 weeks is a bit too short to raise your scores to that level albeit not impossible.

    The ides of March is on the 15th, therefore taking it anytime in the first week should be safe ; )

    Good luck on your prep.

    Askdoc

  • haitham

    I returned!!! lol!

    just finished uwsa 2 …….4 blocks done in a rown except i took few minutes to pee after block 1 ……the urge came in the middle of the first block but i said to myself deal as if u r in the middle of a block in the exam!!

    guess wat was the score?…….the same!

    630/245

    although i wanted to get higher than the previous but at least i didnot get a lower mark!

    now my friend wat about the exam day tips regarding pacing and food?

  • Hi Haitham,

    Welcome back. If you like, take a look at one of my student’s exam experience at my forum at http://forums.askdoc-usmle.com. He got a 97/232. Guess what his NBME scores were.

    One fact about your experience. I think you have reached a plateau in your prep, that is why you are no longer improving even if you are still studying. Everyone plateaus eventually although the peak is different for different people. It’s a good thing you will be taking the exam by next week. Do not delay the exam because you will eventually go into decline, when what you forget is more than what you learn or study. When we start learning, we tend to start forgetting some of what we studied immediately. Initially, the rate of learning is faster than the rate of forgetting, but eventually it plateaus then go into decline. It’s about 6 to 8 months for most people.

    Therefore, I suggest that you take the last few days going through high yield stuff and pics. This is to maintain your score, not to raise it. You should not be learning new material as it may accelerate the decline.

    Two days before the exam, drop your books and do not study anything. Relax and take your mind off the examination. Go watch a movie, preferably a comedy or do anything that takes your mind off the exam. Sleep well the night before. Take a hot bath, but do not take tranquilizers as you’ll not be at your peak the next day.

    One word of advise. On the day of the exam, do not leave any question unanswered. An unanswered question is a sure wrong, while a question answered even with a guess is a possible right. And just one additional right answer may mean the difference between a 74 and 75 or a 98 and 99.

    The best pacing schedule makes use of a couple of facts. One, you are more alert in the early morning than in the afternoon when the exam will have taken it’s toll. Therefore it makes sense to schedule more blocks before lunch. So 4, 3 would be good. Now you are sleepiest after lunch, because of the act of digestion, therefore schedule only 1 block after lunch then have a break afterward. Never take more than 2 blocks before you take a break with some food or sugared drink. Your sugar level starts falling after 2 hours and sugar is the main fuel for your brain.

    So best to schedule 2 blocks, 15 minute break, 2 blocks then 25 minute lunch, then 1 block, 10 minute break, then last 2 blocks. You can take a break between the last 2 blocks if you feel you need it. Notice that the total break is 50 minutes. Reason is that the actual break will usually be longer than the time you scheduled it. Just logging in and out of the room will take 1.5 to 2 minutes. The rest room is usually two doors out (both the exam center in my home country and the one in San Francisco where I took Step 3 have the same layout. So I presume all Prometric centers have the same general layout) So you have to walk.If you need a short break between 1st and 2nd block or 3rd and 4th block, just sit on your cubicle and rest for a minute or two before starting the next block. As I said logging in and out is a time waster.

    Now, for meals. Light breakfast in the morning preferably no meat but high energy carbohydrate. (High protein, high fat foods can make you sleepy, so no ham and eggs, sorry) Now coffee or tea to keep you awake, but limit to a cup since they increase urine formation.(increased heart rate, increased GFR = increased urine formation)

    For the morning break, do not bring sandwich. It takes too long to finish eating it. Bring something sweet, high energy, high carbohydrate that can give you a sugar boost. (I ate a small high sugar cake that I finished in 4 to 5 bites.) You can opt to wash down with a cola (which can provide both sugar and caffeine boost)

    For lunch break, do not eat full meal. A sandwich, preferably not high protein (egg sandwich or cheese sandwich comes to mind) is advisable. It’s actually basic physiology. A heavy meal will cause blood flow to be diverted to your gi tract longer therfore less blood flow to brain. Plus, proteins and fat will cause secretion of more HCl for digestion leading to Metabolic alkalosis. This leads to hypoventilation (to increase CO2) and therefore less oxygen to the brain. Longer digestive time causes longer time for HCl to be reabsorbed. This is the main reason why you are sleepiest after lunch.

    For the afternoon break, a high sugary drink whether cola or juice will suffice. Limit total water intake as that can increase need for bathroom breaks.

    Now for the meds, you need the following
    .
    1. Pain reliever – paracetamol, in case of headache or any other ache.
    2. Loperamide – in case of gastrointestinal emergency eg. diarrhea
    3. Antacid – in case of hyperacidity (anxiety can cause it)
    4. Beta blocker – in case anxiety and palpitation become too distracting.

    Good luck on your exam. Come back and tell me how it went.

    Askdoc

  • saba

    hi, i gave u step 1 and got a score of 93/223. thanks for the advice u have given me before writing the exam.

  • Hi saba,

    Way to go. Congratulations, that is a great score. Now concentrate on Step 2 CK. Feel free to ask me questions if you need help for Step 2 CK. If you can get the same score for Step 2 CK or higher, I won’t be surprised if you get over a dozen interviews. If you don’t need visa, you may get twice that number of interviews. Watch out though, it is better to have only a high Step 1 score rather than a high step 1 score and a low Step 2 score for getting interviews. So make sure your NBME is very good before sitting for Step 2 CK.

    Askdoc

  • Robert

    Hi, im really frustrated i hada a 380/186 in UWSA. Should i take a chance and take the exam on 1 week or postpone it? What i´ve seen in the rest of the forums everyone does well at least 200s. I did another predictive exam 2 weeks ago which result was 185, no improvement i dont seem to be getting it any more. i just cant focus any more.

    Any advice?

  • Hi Robert,

    Alas, your case is fairly common. To be honest, I rarely see anybody with less than 400 pass the USMLE. And you need a 450 for an almost sure pass. Therefore it is very dangerous to take the exam at this point. It costs the same amount of time, money and effort to cancel the exam and retake it when you are ready and to fail the exam altogether, except that failing does a lot of harm to your chance for a good residency. If you fail, you still need to retake it.

    The fact that you are not improving and you can’t focus anymore showed you’ve plateaued. The advise I usually give in this situation is to reboot. That is take some time off, maybe 2 weeks to a month (cancel the exam) then restart your prep. I know it is frustrating and most often the person I advise do not take the advise and continue with their exam. And almost always they fail. So it is still your choice. The reason you have this problem is that you did not evaluate yourself right at the beginning of your prep. When you prep, you need to evaluate yourself at the outset to see if you’ve made progress. Read my post on Guide to Self-Evaluation in USMLE Prep on this blog.

    If you do decide to reboot your prep, come back and I’ll give you a series of links to my posts on how to prep right.

    Askdoc

  • 99alltheway

    Hi I love your site!IT is so informative. Thank you so much for helping aspirants like me with your advice. I do have one question though… what do you mean buy the Ides of March? I am scheduled to take the exam on March 19. IS this not a good date? What days should I beware of: (first time I heard the beware the Ides of March?!?

    Also, I will be doing my NBME assessment on the 6th. As you mentioned, form 1 has the highest correlation, so I will take that!

    Thanks. You are doing a really great job!

  • Hi 99alltheway,

    Thank You! The 3 digit score predicted by NBME + or – 10 points is 2SD of predicted scores. That means most scores will fall within 10 points of the predicted 3 digit score.

    The Ides of March which is the 15th of March, is the day Julius Caesar, ruler of Rome (he is not the emperor as the first emperor is his heir Octavius, called Emperor Augustus) was assassinated by the Roman Senate. He was allegedly warned by a seer to “Beware the Ides of March”, which he did not heed. Therefore the Ides of March is considered an omen of bad luck by the Romans.

    My remark was in answer to Ahmed’s Joke about “the Ides of March”. :)

    Good luck on your exam.

    Askdoc

  • 99alltheway

    Thanks for the quick repsonse!:)

  • Mazhar

    Hi! I stumbled upon your site during one of my ‘nbme score correlation’ google sessions! it appears to be more helpful than any forums ive come across!!…and ive come across alot :)
    well, i downloaded the forms off various forums, and started off with form 2 (got a 620) and then form 5 (got a 572). Firstly, since i did not purchase these from the nbme site, I had to use some correlation charts which im not sure were the latest ones(got those off some forum too). if possible, could u please send me a link or email the latest(if theres any such thing) one to me.
    Secondly, ive gone thru tons of forums and some say that form 3 is the best predictor, some say 2, some 4 and so on. Which form would u say is the best predictor, so that scoring well on that particular one essentially guarantees a high score.
    Thirdly, and lastly, some people report having seen ALOT of molecular biochem on their exam, some report the traiditonal patho/pathophys abundance and some report anatomy. does every exam have a different subject majority or do they all contain roughly 48 questions of each subject?

  • Hi Mazhar,

    About those “downloaded” NBME. Copyright problems aside, the question you have to ask is who, where, what, how. Who did the correlations study? Where is that study? What institution is backing the study? How was the study conducted? In case of the online NBME we know who did the study (it’s in the website and the assessment report given you) where the report is (you can google the research paper), What institution is backing the study (NBME and USMLE itself) and How the study was conducted (Read the research paper). With the downloaded version, Do you have any information of the who, where, what and how. If not, why will you entrust your entire future on someone you do not know at all and choose to be anonymous.

    Two, if you read my post and if you understood your biostatistics, you will know that the best predictor does not guarantee the highest score. It predicts more closely what your actual score will be. However, this is based on correlation studies and the accuracy of correlation studies to a specific instance of a result can never be guaranteed. Only its accuracy on a wide range of results. That is the basics of biostatistics. If that is possible. Then get me one who can do that, get me to Vegas and I don’t have to be a physician to earn big bucks! :) Biostatistics deals with probabilities not certainties.

    Lastly, people tend to remember what took them the longest to answer, because it was the hardest for them. That accounts for the tendency to think a lot of molecular biochem will appear in the exam. Unless, USMLE now believes that the medical field needs molecular biologist than clinicians, that will hardly happen. Go to my forum at http://forums.askdoc-usmle.com. Read the post on Askdoc’s Method of USMLE review. Read all three posts in order. It is explained there what is the percentage of coverage in the exam of the different subjects in the USMLE. Unless a major percentage of all examinees report an increase in Anatomy questions, I hardly believe again that anatomy will comprise the bulk of the exam. USMLE is a very fair and very logical exam, unlike the local boards of most other countries including mine. Their rationale for the questions they ask in the exam is based on what you need to know to be a good clinician and not to test how good you are at memorizing obscure medical details.

    Askdoc

  • Mazhar

    thank you for the detailed reply.
    as for the NBME forms, well maybe i should have phrased my question differently; for instance, i just recently completed form 5 and got 143/200 correct; i have just one block of form 4 left to do and should probably end up with about 160/200 correct. SO, do you think these scores mean that im well on my path to getting a 99? the correlation chart stuff i mentioned before seems to have clouded my actual question! :)

  • Dr. M

    Hello Askdoc, I wrote to you a couple of months ago regarding which NBME exam to take before writing the USMLE step 1. My exam is the 20 of April, 2009, and these have been my scores so far.

    NBME 5 = 580 (Suppose to be 236 on step 1)
    NBME 2 = 630 (Suppose to be a 252 on step 1)

    I found NBME 5 to be much more challenging…

    I know these are good grades, but I still dont “feel” ready for the test. Everybody tells me its been getting harder and that they have been adding these wierd experiment questions, etc.. What do you thing I should do from this point on? I was planning to review first aid once more, and maybe pay NBME 3 or 6 (NBME 6 is supposed to be the closest to the real thing. Thats what i read somewhere on the net).

    Thanks in advance for the advice. Really appreciate what youre doing w/ your site. Keep it up !
    Dr. M

  • Hi Dr. M,

    Really sorry for the late reply. Anyway there seems to be some disparity on the scores you got with both NBME although they still predict a 99. However, again the correlation is not 100% and in most cases people tend to score lower than predicted score although some do get higher. I think you should try NBME 6 since that is the latest set. I do notice that people who used the first few NBME’s tend to score lower than their predicted scores while those who used the last 2 NBME tend to have predicted scores that hold better. Again, I don’t have enough data points (from looking over reported scores and statistics in the various forums) to make a conclusion as yet. But it does make sense that since we know the USMLE is getting tougher yearly, (mainly due to the fact that people are scoring higher due to better prep) that the newly constructed NBME exams may reflect the tougher USMLE exams better. Again, not enough data to make a conclusion but seems logical.

    Based on your scores, it seems 90′s is safe for you, which means you are assured of scoring in the 90′s. 99 is not so sure but you do have a chance. Important for me to know, when you plan to take the exam, have you finished q bank and which one, so we can decide how best to proceed. If you are aiming for a 99, you’re not there yet but very close. Again, you may still get a 99 if you take the exam now, but a possible 99 and not a sure 99 in this case.

    Askdoc

    PS. If your exam is in 2 to 3 weeks time, concentrate on high yield stuff. Both first aid and my High Yield Fast Fact Course are good sources. Your choice.

  • Dr. M

    Hello Askdoc. Thanks for the sound advice.

    My test date is the 20 of April, 2009, so i have about 20 days left for my test. As to my preparation so far, i did USMLE World Qbank and scored 60% of the questions correctly. I reviewed First Aid and then i did the Qbook that came with the Kaplan Course just to see how i was doing. I scored 76% overall. After this i felt like i plateaued. I started to surf the net looking for what to do next and that’s when i found your site, which motivated me to finally try out these NBME’s. Before all this, i basically did the Kaplan course. It really helped me out to fill all the gaps in my knowledge, me being an IMG and all.

    Initially i wasn’t aiming for a 99 on the test. I really just wanted to score above 90, but these NBME scores motivated me to give it a try. I found NBME 2 very easy, w/ very short questions. On the other hand NBME 5 had longer questions, which were more clinically oriented and required more time to think them through. All i hear is that the test is getting harder and harder, and that kind of freaks me out a bit. What do you think about the test getting harder? I heard that there’s a lot of molecular questions and questions dealing w/ transgenic mice experiments :S. Not exactly my favorite type of Q’s.

    I’m going to follow your advice. These last 20 days i will concentrate on High Yield material, focusing on the recall of important information. I have a few other questions to ask you…

    1- How long before my test date do you think i should take NBME 6?
    2- Do you think i should do another type of Qbank before the test? (I have a bunch of older Qbanks some friends gave me).
    3- Any advice on mentally/physically preparing for the test these last few days?
    4- Some advice for the day of the test, and pacing through the test.

    Thanx a lot in advance. Keep up the excellent job.
    Dr. M.

  • Hi Dr. M,

    1. Around 1 week to 10 days before the exam.
    2. Just do it to drill for the exam. Do not use it to learn new things as that would be bad for you. You tend to remember the last things you studied and if they are full of low yield stuff, that is what you remember and not the high yield ones.
    3. and 4. Read my post on this blog on What to do on the day of the USMLE exam.

    Askdoc

  • Kay

    Hello Askdoc,

    I’ve been a silent reader of your posts since I started studying prepping for step 2 Ck about a month ago. I have my step 2 CK this tuesday – march 31st.

    I studied mostly from First Aid and Kaplan and USMLE World (around 68% correct) plus Kaplan Q bank.

    NBME Form 1 – 520
    NBME Form 2 – 580 (taken 14 days after Form 1, this wednesday – 5 days before actual exam)

    I have a green card. My Step 1 score 96/230

    I thought I was not as nervous for CK as I was for Step 1 but I am extremely jittery today and feel like I’ve forgotten everything. I cannot postpone the exam because it’s the last day of my eligibility period and frankly, I just want to get it over with.

    My question to you is – will I be able to make a 90+ score? And do you think I will get any interview calls with just a 96 plus an unknown, hopeful 90+? :(

    I’ve studied till now and plan on studying more tomorrow just because I am jittery. I’ve never been this way before. Any of your words would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance!

  • Hi Kay,

    If both your scores are above 85 with Green Card and relatively fresh grad, you will get interviews. Your performance in the interview will determine if you match. However with a 96 in Step 1, so long as you can hold above 90 for Step 2 CK, I won’t be surprised if you get over a dozen interviews unless you are aiming for surgical fields. That will be harder.

    As to will you be able to get 90′s. Your score seems to indicate that you have a good chance of getting 90′s. But there is still a possibility of 80′s probably on the high side. My own suggestion is to study only high yield stuff the next few days. First Aid will do. But do not study anything new. It’s too late for that. Do not study the day before the exam. Relax and regenerate energy for next day’s long gruelling exam. With your NBME scores, I don’t see any reason why you would want to extend your eligibility period. Take the exam. Your chances for 90′s are very good. I know things can go wrong on exam day, but the chances of that happening is just as good if you postponed your exam, right. So relax. Read my post on What to do on the day of the USMLE exam.

    Good luck and may you get your dream score.

    Askdoc

  • Kay

    Thank you, AskDoc! (if I knew your name, I would thank you differently :) )

    You calmed my nerves quite a bit. My exam is tomorrow. I am just planning on reading through high yield facts and doing some questions now.

    I am planning on applying for Internal Medicine, not Surgery. So according to what you said, I would atleast get some interviews. Yay! :)

    I have read your What To Do On The Exam Day and found it extremely helpful. I love the way you express yourself concisely. I am sure a lot of people appreciate your efforts. But I don’t think it gets stale when I say – Kudos to you.

    I will be back with my score to report, hopefully.

    PS : If it’s not too personal – are you working as a resident now?

    Thanks again! :)

  • Haitham

    Hi Askdoc…..do u remeber me

    got my score today………>99/237!

    thnx god was about to lose 99!!!lol

    ur advices were very very helpful

    uwsa1…..>245-50 days before exam-

    uwsa2…….>245 2 weeks before the exam

    nbme form 6 ……> 234!!!! …..5 days before the exam

    my opinion is uwsa doesnot exagerate the score on the contrary form 6 underestimate and the reason i got less than 245 is bad performance on the examination day ……i didnot get long sleep night before the exam……..also i missed 10 straight questions that were very easy cause of stress……i didnot feel stressed when solving asssessment exams

    but allhumdilla it is 99!

    thnx a lot ASK doc……u r wonderful

    and also my score in uw q bank was 69%…….only did it once timed mixed

    any one in this forum want to ask any thing am glad to help…….also read the posts of askdoc carefull especially the tips for the exam day and how to prepare for it………i beleive i could have done better if i have read it before…but for my luck it was written after my exam!

  • tom

    Hi… i took NBME form 6 2 weeks ago and did terrible. I am currently revising Kaplan Lecture notes and FA. I plan to take my second NBME on April 8th. I’m set to take the real exam on April 23. Should I take form 5 or 1? Is there still sense taking form 1? THanks!

  • Hi Kay,

    Glad I could help. Actually my real name is somewhere in my blog. It is written in a copy of my Step 1 and Step 2 Score report published somewhere here. See if you can find it.

    Askdoc

  • Hi Haitham,

    Congratulations!! Remember a 99 is a 99 is a 99. It does not matter how close it was. What matters is that you made it. Again congratulations for a job well done.

    Askdoc

  • Hi tom,
    Whether you’ll be ready to take the real exam on the 23rd really depends on how terrible your score was in NBME form 6. It will also determine that whether just reading through Kaplan Lecture notes and FA alone are enough to remedy the situation. There are some indications that Form 5 and Form 6 tend to underestimate your scores a bit, while the first 4 forms tend to overestimate your score a bit. So Form 5 may be better. However, again whether what you do in between now until the exam will work or not depends on how terrible your Form 6 is.

    Askdoc

  • Ria

    Hi

    I have been a silent reader of your writings, thanks a lot for your tips.

    I wonder if you can help me please.

    Ria

  • Ria

    Ok that was a check message. I typed out a lengthy paragraph and it disappeared before it could go through.

    Right, I am taking Step 2 CK in the 3rd week of May (absolutely) . Today I did NBME form 4 (thus used up all of them) and scored 215/ 490. 2 weeks ago I had done usmle world self assessment and scored 224 / 530. I am aiming for a score in high 90s (atleast 95 + 2 digit score). What can I do to achieve this?

    My test prep strategy (and its different for every individual) has been to revise the HY topics multiple times (reviewed First aid 6 times atleast) , listened to Goljan lectures, review his HY notes,and do uw q bank twice (scoring 79% second time round). I cannot say I opened a lot of text books during this time but did go back to Kaplan notes / CMDT / looked up the internet if something was a problem consistently.

    I have been putting in 6-8 hours of study (atleast) since January and don’t feel totally ‘burnt out’. What should I do ? I don’t want / cannot give up, too much is at stake here. Should I now do Kaplan q bank or just keep revising First Aid / Kaplan/ Goljan.

    Please advice freely what you think about my preps

    Thanks

  • Dr. R

    I took my step 1 and got a 93/223 first try. I have a green card and am a foreign medical student via the new “fifth pathway” now called “year of supervised clinical training” at NYMC. I would like to know what score should I shoot for on Step 2 CK to be considered for surgery residencies and which NBME correlate best with Step 2 CK?

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